It took more than three hours, but the media finally declared a UCP majority government just after 11:00 p.m. on Monday night. In her victory speech, Danielle Smith borrowed a phrase from former Alberta Premier Ralph Klein and declared a UCP victory by saying, “Welcome to another miracle on the Prairies!”
The UCP won a majority of the 87 seats in the Alberta legislature, by a 49-38 margin. The popular vote across Alberta was about 53% to 44%, representing a bigger gap than many pundits had expected, although the final percentages and seat count may not be known for several days.
The story of the night: The blue wall of conservative ridings in the north and northwest area of Calgary held. The UCP’s bench strength took a hit by losing several key Calgary ministers, including Jason Copping (Health), Nicholas Milliken (Mental Health and Addictions), and Tyler Shandro (Justice). Deputy Premier, Kaycee Madu, also lost in Edmonton-South West, making Edmonton completely NDP.
The NDP always had a tougher road to victory in this election. They needed to take at least 17 of Calgary’s 26 seats but wound up with 14 after vote recounts in close ridings. As expected, the votes for the Alberta Party largely folded into the NDP’s numbers in Calgary. The breakthrough the NDP needed in the north and northwest area of Calgary never quite materialized. The NDP also needed to win all of the areas that encircle the city of Edmonton. While they won Sherwood Park, the party failed to take Strathcona-Sherwood Park or Morinville-St Albert.
By the end of the night, one thing was clear – the UCP are back in government with a renewed four-year mandate. But they will also face a strong official opposition, comprised of a mix of veteran MLAs and fresh voices.
In her concession speech NDP leader Rachel Notley took full responsibility for the loss, but vowed to stay on as opposition leader.
A new cabinet is expected to be sworn in as early as this week, but the legislature will not likely sit until the fall. If the last four weeks of campaigning are any indication, one thing is for certain: Alberta politics will continue to be a wild ride.